Democratic Presidential polls and trends, for my records...
Posted by darkstar 12 years ago
81. Clinton-43, Obama-22, Edwards-16, Gore not included. (CBS, 9/14-16/07)  
80. Clinton-39, Obama-20, Edwards-13, Gore-9. (Fox/OD, 9/11-12/07)  
79. Clinton-34, Obama-20, Gore-16, Edwards-10. (AP/Ipsos, 9/10-12/07)  
78. Clinton-39, Obama-21, Edwards-15, Gore not included. (ARG, 9/9-12/07)  
77. Clinton-44, Obama-23, Edwards-16. Gore not included. (NBC/WSJ, 9/7-10/07)  
76. Clinton-39, Obama-20, Edwards-15, Gore-13. (CNN/OR, 9/7-9/07)  
75. Clinton-39, Obama-19, Gore-16, Edwards-14. (USAToday/Gallup, 9/7-8/07)  
74. Clinton-41, Obama-27, Edwards-14. Gore not included. (ABC/WaPo, 9/4-7/07)  
 
Latino Debate  
LGBT Issues Debate  
 
73. Clinton-36, Obama-21, Gore-15, Edwards-9. (Quinnipiac, 8/7-13/07)  
72. Clinton-45, Obama-25, Edwards-14, Gore not included. (ARG, 8/9-12/07)  
71. Clinton-45, Obama-25, Edwards-14, Gore not included. (CBS, 8/8-12/07)  
70. Clinton-40, Obama-21, Edwards-13, Gore-11. (CNN/OR, 8/6-8/07)  
 
August 7: Dem AFL-CIO debate at Soldier's Field  
 
69. Clinton-42, Obama-19, Gore-18, Edwards-10. (USAToday/Gallup, 8/3-5/07)  
68. Clinton-39, Obama-21, Gore-10, Edwards-8. (Cook/RTS, 8/2-5/07)  
67. Clinton-44, Obama-23, Edwards-14. Gore not included. (Newsweek, 8/1-2/07)  
66. Clinton-43, Obama-22, Edwards-13. Gore not included. (NBC/WSJ, 7/27-30/07)  
65. Clinton-40, Obama-21, Gore-12, Edwards-11. (Pew, 7/25-29/07)  
 
July 23: CNN-YouTube Democratic presidential debate.  
 
64. Clinton-39, Obama-30, Edwards-11. Gore not included. (Diageo/Hotline, 7/19-22/07)  
63. Clinton-39, Obama-28, Gore-14, Edwards-9. (ABC/WaPo, 7/18-21/07)  
62. Clinton-39, Obama-23, Gore-9, Edwards-9. (Fox/OD, 7/17-18/07)  
61. Clinton-34, Obama-25, Gore-16, Edwards-9. (USAToday/Gallup, 7/12-16/07)  
60. Clinton-37, Obama-25, Edwards-11. Gore not included. (Zogby, 7/12-14/07)  
59. Clinton-38, Obama-25, Edwards-16. Gore not included. (ARG, 7/9-12/07)  
 
July 7: Live Earth concerts simulcast around the world.  
 
58. Clinton-37, Obama-21, Gore-16, Edwards-13. (USAToday/Gallup, 7/6-8/07)  
 
July 4: Gore's son arrested for drug possession.  
June 28: Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Reid sign Gore's "Live Earth Pledge".  
June 28: Third Dem Forum held at Howard University.  
June 28: Clinton polls as only candidate of either party with net "unfavorable" rating".  
June 27: First time Gore polls in lead among Dems in any state (NH).  
 
57. Clinton-48, Obama-24, Edwards-11. Gore not included. (CBS, 6/26-28/07)  
56. Clinton-42, Obama-19, Gore-14, Edwards-10. (Fox/OD, 6/26-27/07)  
55. Clinton-35, Obama-23, Gore-16, Edwards-13. (CNN/OR, 6/22-24/07)  
54. Clinton-30, Obama-20, Edwards-13, Gore-9. (Cook/RTStrategies, 6/15-17/07)  
53. Clinton-43, Obama-27, Edwards-14. Gore not included. (Newsweek, 6/20-21/07)  
52. Clinton-33, Obama-21, Gore-18, Edwards-11. (USAToday/Gallup, 6/11-14/07)  
51. Clinton-39, Obama-19, Edwards-13. Gore not included. (ARG, 6/19-12/07)  
50. Clinton-39, Obama-25, Edwards-15. Gore not included. (NBC/WSJ, 6/8-11/07)  
49. Clinton-35, Obama-21, Gore-18, Edwards-9. (Quinnipiac, 6/5-11/07)  
48. Clinton-33, Obama-22, Gore-15, Edwards-8. (LATimes/Bloomberg, 6/7-10/07)  
47. Clinton-36, Obama-23, Gore-14, Edwards-12. (Fox/OD, 6/5-6/07)  
46. Clinton-33, Obama-21, Gore-20, Edwards-12. (AP/Ipsos, 6/4-6/07)  
 
June 3: Second Dem debate in New Hampshire  
 
45. Obama-30, Clinton-29, Gore-17, Edwards-11. (USAToday/Gallup, 6/1-3/07)  
44. Clinton-35, Obama-23, Gore-17, Edwards-8. (ABC/WaPo, 5/29-6/1/07)  
 
May 24: Congress votes to allow continued funding for Iraq War without timelines  
May 22: Gore releases new book "The Assault on Reason"  
 
43. Clinton-46, Obama-24, Edwards-14. Gore not included. (CBS/NYT, 5/18-23/07)  
42. Clinton-35, Obama-25, Edwards-18. Gore not included. (Rasmussen, 5/21/07)  
41. Clinton-31, Obama-21, Gore-13, Edwards-10. (Diageo/Hotline, 5/16-20/07)  
40. Clinton-35, Obama-20, Edwards-13, Gore-13. (Fox/OD, 5/15-16/07)  
39. Clinton-35, Obama-33, Edwards-14. Gore not included. (Rasmussen, 5/14/07)  
38. Clinton-35, Obama-24, Edwards-11, Gore-10. (Cook/RTS, 5/11-13/07)  
37. Clinton-35, Obama-26, Gore-16, Edwards-12. (Gallup, 5/10-13/07)  
36. Clinton-39, Obama-22, Edwards-19. Gore not included. (ARC, 5/9-12/07)  
35. Clinton-34, Obama-26, Edwards-16. Gore not included. (Rasmussen, 5/7/07)  
34. Clinton-38, Obama-24, Gore-12, Edwards-12. (CNN/ORC, 5/4-6/07)  
33. Clinton-32, Obama-18, Gore-14, Edwards-12. (Quinnipiac, 4/25-5/1/07)  
32. Obama-32, Clinton-30, Edwards-17. Gore not included. (Rasmussen, 4/30/07)  
 
April 26: First Dem Debate in South Carolina  
 
31. Clinton-32, Obama-32. Edwards-17. Gore not included. (Rasmussen, 4/23/07)  
30. Clinton-36, Obama-31, Edwards-20. Gore not included. (NBC/WSJ, 4/20-23/07)  
29. Clinton-34, Obama-24, Edwards-18, Gore-14. (Pew, 4/18-22/07)  
28. Clinton-41, Obama-20, Gore-16, Edwards-12. (Fox, 4/17-18/07)  
27. Clinton-32, Obama-30. Edwards-16. Gore not included. (Rasmussen, 4/16/07)  
26. Clinton-31, Obama-26, Edwards-16, Gore-15. (USA Today/Gallup, 4/13-15/07)  
25. Clinton-37, Obama-20, Gore-17, Edwards-14. (ABC/WaPo, 4/12-15/07)  
24. Clinton-30, Obama-26, Gore-15, Edwards-12. (CNN/ORC, 4/10-12/07)  
23. Clinton-36, Obama-24, Edwards-19. Gore not included. (ARG, 4/9-4/12/07)  
22. Clinton-34, Obama-29. Edwards-15. Gore not included. (Rasmussen, 4/9/07)  
21. Clinton-33, Obama-23, Edwards-14, Gore-13. (LATimes/Bloom, 4/5-9/07)  
20. Clinton-38, Obama-19, Edwards-15, Gore-14. (Gallup, 4/2-5/07)  
19. Clinton-41, Edwards-19, Obama-17. Gore not included. (Cook, 3/29-4/1/07)  
18. Clinton-36, Obama-18, Gore-14, Edwards-13. (Fox/OD, 3/27-28/07)  
17. Clinton-36, Obama-28, Edwards-18. Gore not included. (CBS, 3/26-27/07)  
16. Clinton-32, Obama-22, Edwards-13. Gore not included. (Zogby, 3/26/07)  
15. Clinton-35, Obama-22, Gore-17, Edwards-14. (USA TODAY/Gallup, 3/26/07)  
 
Mar 22: Edwards campaign announces Tipper's cancer.  
 
14. Clinton-37, Obama-22, Gore-14, Edwards-12. (CNN/ORC - 3/9-11/07)  
13. Clinton-38, Obama-21. Gore-14, Edwards-10. (AP/AOL Ipsos, early 3/07)  
12. Clinton-34, Obama-26, Gore-13, Edwards-10. (Time - 3/3-9/07)  
11. Clinton-36, Obama-22, Gore-18, Edwards-9. (USA TODAY/Gallup, 3/2-4/07)  
10. Clinton-34, Obama-23, Gore-14, Edwards-12. (Fox/OD - 2/27-28/07)  
 
Feb 25: Gore's documentary wins Oscar.  
 
09. Clinton-36, Obama-24, Gore-14, Edwards-12. (ABC/WaPo - 2/22-25/07)  
08. Clinton-38, Obama-23, Gore-11, Edwards-6. (Quinnipiac - 2/13-19/07)  
07. Clinton-37, Obama-17, Edwards-11, Gore-11. (WNBC/Marist - 2/12-15/07)  
06. Clinton-45, Obama-12, Edwards-10, Gore-10. (TU/Siena - 2/27-28/07)  
05. Clinton-34, Obama-18, Edwards-15, Gore-10. (CNN/OR - 2/19-21/07)  
 
Jan 24: Kerry drops out.  
Jan 17: Obama files to create a presidential exploratory committee.  
 
04. Clinton-39, Obama-23, Edwards-10, Gore-10. (Pew - 11/9/06)  
03. Clinton-31, Obama-19, Kerry-10, Gore-10. (McLaughlin - 11/7/06)  
 
Nov-Dec: Speculation begins about Obama (fueled by Dec 11 Chicago Bears promo)  
Nov 7: Dems sweep Nov. '06 elections.  
 
02. Clinton-34, Gore-18, Edwards-11, Kerry 11. (Pew - 8/9-13/06)  
01. Clinton-36, Gore-16, Kerry-12, Edwards-11. (Gallup - 6/1-4/06)
I've decided...
darkstar: ...to focus on one of the parties for the purposes of tracking the polling trends. This is the new journal entry for that.  
 
Again, please ignore if you're not interested in Presidential politics, polling, etc. If you run across a nation-wide Dem poll that I've missed, please let me know.  
 
Thanks,  
d*
Just to emphasize how these polls are way too early...
darkstar: ...to be at all relevant, here are Gallup poll data from 2003-4. Note that Lieberman was in the lead through the summer before the election year.  
 
6/12-18/2003:  
 
Lieberman 21  
Gephardt 17  
Kerry 13  
Graham 7  
Dean 7  
Edwards 6  
Sharpton 6  
Moseley Braun 5  
 
 
8/4-6/2003:  
 
Lieberman 23  
Gephardt 13  
Dean 12  
Kerry 10  
Edwards 5  
Moseley Braun 5  
Sharpton 4  
 
Then, after Labor Day of the year before the election, Lieberman dropped off significantly.  
 
9/8-10/2003  
 
Gephardt 16  
Dean 14  
Lieberman 13  
Kerry 12  
Edwards 5  
Moseley Braun 4  
Sharpton 2  
 
Fast forward to the primary season. Before the Iowa (January 19) and New Hampshire (January 27) events, Lieberman is no longer in the top three. Clark has come from nowhere to take second place.  
 
1/9-11:  
 
Dean 26  
Clark 20  
Kerry 9  
Lieberman 9  
Edwards 7  
Gephardt 7  
 
Then, after those two events, Kerry has had a major surge into first place. Kerry, who never polled more than low teens for the whole previous year, suddenly surges to nearly 50% in the span of just two weeks.  
 
1/29-2/1:  
 
Dean 14  
Clark 9  
Kerry 49  
Lieberman 5  
Edwards 13  
Gephardt n/a  
 
I find it interesting to see these trends. What it really underscores is that Clinton's and Giuliani's current lead in their respective parties are virtually meaningless.  
 
The nomination could easily go to someone who is lagging in third or fourth place even the week before the primaries.
darkstar: An interesting development. This poll is the first one to show Gore beating Clinton if Gore were running.  
 
A new Suffolk University poll in New Hampshire shows Sen. Hillary Clinton leading among likely primary voters with 37% support, followed by Sen. Barack Obama with 19%, John Edwards at 9%, and Bill Richardson at 9%.  
 
Key finding: "The only obstacle for Clinton in the Democratic primary is Al Gore. Twenty-nine percent of Clinton voters would switch to Gore if he announced for president, and when all of the switches from other Democratic candidates were recalculated, Gore would defeat Clinton."  
 
New trend:
darkstar: According to a new Mason-Dixon survey, given exclusively to NBC/MSNBC and McClatchy newspapers, Clinton is the only major presidential candidate -- either Democrat and Republican -- for whom a majority of likely general election voters say they would not consider voting. In addition, she's the only candidate who registers with a net-unfavorable rating.  
 
---  
 
Nevertheless, Clinton continues to poll in strong first place preference among Democratic primary voters.
pneum0nic: Very interetsing. I live in DC, and therefore cannot vote in the primaries, but I don't know what I'll do if faced with Hillary vs. a moderate Respublican...  
Aftermath of CNN-YouTube debate:
darkstar: A plurality think Edwards was "most genuine" and "won" the debate.  
 
However, Biden was the most improved.  
 
Other polls have suggested that Clinton or Obama "won", but they, too, suggest that Biden was the "most improved". That suggests that whatever "winning" means, Biden did pretty well at raising his stock from this debate.
FoolProof: "The thing I like most about Dennis Kucinich is his wife"  
 
I lol'd.